Nearly a year after the Brexit vote, continuing uncertainty means Kent companies are unable to plan for life post-EU

So much has happened since June 23, 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union.

There is a new Prime Minister, who has called a snap general election that is expected to create a landslide victory of the like not seen since Tony Blair entered the doors of No.10 on the crest of the New Labour wave 20 years ago.

In March, the UK formally triggered the process of leaving the EU, invoking Article 50, which started a two-year exit process. If all goes to plan, the UK will leave in March 2019.

Prime Minister Theresa May meets Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, at Downing Street. Picture: SWNS / Adam Gray
Prime Minister Theresa May meets Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, at Downing Street. Picture: SWNS / Adam Gray

Yet in many ways, nothing has happened.

Almost a year after the vote, barely anything is known about what the future of the UK will be outside the European bloc it joined in 1973.

“We know very little about how this is going to turn out,” said Dr Mark Hammond, visiting professor at Canterbury Christ Church University, who co-authored its Kent and Medway: Making a Success of Brexit report.

“Every time I look at this I’m staggered by the amount of work that needs to be done and the level of detail that will have to be considered,” he said.

Canterbury Christ Church University visiting professor Dr Mark Hammond
Canterbury Christ Church University visiting professor Dr Mark Hammond

“There will be more than one view about how the UK should set new standards for itself going forward. Each one will be a big debate.”

The result of the uncertainty has been paralysis among many firms.

In its latest survey of regional business leaders, Tunbridge Wells-based law firm Cripps found less than 40% have reviewed their business plans. Many are instead adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Managing partner Gavin Tyler said: “Although the reality of Brexit remains too uncertain for it to have significantly impacted on business planning, we are surprised that the majority of businesses have not yet started reviewing business strategies and mapping out alternative post-Brexit scenarios.”

Cripps managing partner Gavin Tyler
Cripps managing partner Gavin Tyler

Chief among the issues is the future of EU laws affecting all areas of business. In March Brexit Secretary David Davis said a Great Repeal Bill would incorporate EU law into UK law, which would allow Parliament and the devolved administrations to amend and scrap rules they did not want.

“Anyone expecting early benefits commercially from changes to EU standards may be in for a disappointment,” added Dr Hammond.

“We talk about how Brexit gives us the opportunity to free ourselves from Brussels bureaucracy but going through 800 laws will be challenging.

“The sheer amount of time it will take to cash in some of the benefits will be measured in years, not months.”

“Anyone expecting early benefits commercially from changes to EU standards may be in for a disappointment...” - Dr Mark Hammond, Canterbury Christ Church University

Richard Ashworth has been an MEP for the South East of England for 15 years.

“There is a cloak of secrecy in Westminster and everyone is speculating,” he said.

He is pessimistic about the UK’s ambitions to negotiate a deal that will “make a success of Brexit” as the Mrs May has said.

He said: “Many of the expectations people have on Brexit are founded on contradictions.

“If global Britain is to build an economy based on exports, how can it be sensible to disadvantage 45% of exports when you have the world’s wealthiest single market on your doorstep?

Conservative South East MEP Richard Ashworth
Conservative South East MEP Richard Ashworth

“Also, you can’t undercut trade tarriffs around the world and still have tariff-free trade with the EU.

“You can’t be outside the customs union and have no border, as will be the case in Ireland.

“You can’t close borders to workers and still attract the best talent in banking, health, technology and the food industry.”

However, the uncertainty has kicked some firms into action.

Theresa May. Picture: SWNS
Theresa May. Picture: SWNS

Sittingbourne-based Wire Belt Company, which employs 80 people, is seeking new worldwide accreditations to help with paperwork to support international shipments.

Chairman Paul Winter said: “We are also planning how we will deal with the increase in the cost of imported raw materials which is certain to follow the short-term benefit we have received through the weakness of the pound.”

Maidstone-based housing association Golding Homes has borrowed an extra £50 million, including some European Investment Bank money, because of “long-term concerns that option might not be available post-Brexit”, according to its chief executive Peter Stringer.

There is some optimism that businesses in Kent will emerge strongly after the Brexit negotiations are completed.

Golding Homes chief executive Peter Stringer is to retire next year
Golding Homes chief executive Peter Stringer is to retire next year

Mr Stringer said: “We drive and purchase a lot of German cars, we build some houses with some German bricks, and I’m ever optimistic that a good deal will be struck for Britain.”

Even MEP Richard Ashworth offers a glimmer of hope.

“If the negotiations break down and we fail to get an agreement, that is a disaster for the UK but it is also a disaster for the EU and the big parties know that,” he said.

“I hope common sense will prevail and we will end up with a sensible deal.”

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