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The Conservatives are on course for a clean sweep in Kent according to an exclusive poll

The Conservatives are poised to maintain their iron grip on Kent in the general election - bolstered by former Ukip supporters, according to an exclusive opinion poll conducted for the KM Group.

The party is predicted to hold on to all 17 parliamentary constituencies - and in all but one - Dover - by a significant margin.

Of those surveyed, 59% said they were likely to vote Conservative - a huge leap from 2015, when 39% in a similar survey said they would back the party.

*Figures may not add to 100 because of rounding up or rounding down.
*Figures may not add to 100 because of rounding up or rounding down.

The survey was conducted by the Ashford-based Facts International, a leading market research company.

The poll makes grim reading for Ukip, with support for the party plummeting to just 2% compared to 24% who said they intended to back the party in our survey just two years ago.

The figures suggest the party could be heading for a meltdown at the poll and that new man in charge Paul Nuttall is much less popular than former leader Nigel Farage. Just 1% see him as the party leader who would make the best Prime Minister.

The party has already been rocked by its failure to hold on to any of the 17 seats it had on Kent County Council at the recent election.

The election follows the resignation of former Ukip leader Paul Nuttall
The election follows the resignation of former Ukip leader Paul Nuttall

Our poll indicates that the Conservative party is the main beneficiary of former Ukip supporters.

There are mixed fortunes for Labour. Of those surveyed, 30% said they were to vote for the party, which represents an 8% increase on the same survey in 2015.

The party’s strategy of focusing on issues like tuition fees and housing appears to be playing well with younger voters, with 42% of supporters coming from those aged 18-to-34.

Jeremy Corbyn speaking at a rally in Ramsgate
Jeremy Corbyn speaking at a rally in Ramsgate

And many more young voters are likely to vote in 2017 than 2015. Two years ago, more than a third of 18-to-24-year-olds said they wouldn’t be voting; that has fallen dramatically to 8%.

Prime Minister Theresa May
Prime Minister Theresa May

When the question of who would make the best Prime Minister is brought up, Conservative leader Theresa May is the clear front runner.

She scored 69% from those likely to vote compared to the 51% who backed David Cameron in our 2015 poll.

Best PM rated in opinion poll 2017
Best PM rated in opinion poll 2017

And the gulf with Labour on the leadership question is stark, with Jeremy Corbyn backed by 20% of likely voters.

For the Liberal Democrats, their hopes of seeing a surge in support as it pitches itself as the party of the centre ground are not being realised in Kent.

Just 7% said they intended to back the party - compared to 6% of likely voters in 2015 when it was led by Nick Clegg. That is well short of what it needs to make any kind of significant breakthrough in Kent.

Tim Farron visited Maidstone and Canterbury
Tim Farron visited Maidstone and Canterbury

There is also bad news for Tim Farron. Just 3% see him as the best person to lead the country.

The Green Party is backed by 4% of voters and while that is low, the party may take some consolation from the fact that those polled saw protecting the countryside is seen as a greater priority than building new houses.

On the key issues, it is the NHS that comes out as the number one priority for voters, with 28% saying it is the most important issue. That is closely followed by Brexit at 27%, then the economy and jobs at 21%.

Election poll main issues 2017
Election poll main issues 2017

One surprise finding is that immigration - for so long a contentious issue in Kent - is ranked as the most important issue by just 7% of likely voters. In 2015, it was cited by 24% - one in four - as the factor that would most influence how they voted.


ANALYSIS

The odds on the Conservative party failing to retain Kent’s 17 seats are, at least so far as our poll found, pretty remote.

Not since the "heyday" of Margaret Thatcher’s triumphant time in office in the 1980s has the party been such a dominant force in Kent.

So, in the race to Number 10, Theresa May looks set to break the finishing tape well ahead of her rivals.

That is despite the campaign going through a rocky patch, with the U-turn on a cap for adult social care and complaints about the campaign strategy.

There’s no doubt that the Conservative party has been given a turbo charge at the expense of Ukip, which faces meltdown in the county in an area where it established something of a power base.

But is there any outcome other than a comprehensive victory for the Tories? Labour is trailing behind, true. But it is winning over younger voters and the previously toxic issue of immigration is less of a concern for voters.

But the prospects of it converting that appeal to winning seats in Kent remain remote.


THE POLL

Facts International conducted interviews with 1,000 residents between May 15 and May 22.

Quotas were set and weighting applied to ensure a nationally representative sample in terms of gender, age, socio-economic group and constituency. Weighting was based on data from the ONS. A 10 minute interview was administered with closed and open questions.

See tomorrow, how Kent would vote on Brexit and immigration.

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