Kent's prospects in 2012
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In this exclusive article, Professor
Richard Scase, emeritus
Professor at the University of Kent
and internationally renowned business forecaster, is pessimistic
about the prospects for Kent and the world in 2012.
Predictions for 2012 suggest that the average rate of
growth for the OECD economies will be around one per cent.
All the signs suggest Europe and
the United States are moving towards a second (double dip)
recession.
The United Kingdom could be part of
this with pundits now suggesting that growth could be no more than
0.5 per cent; a figure that falls within a statistical margin of
error that may conceal an actual decline in national GDP.
For the UK, and particularly
regions outside the “golden box” of London, Bristol, Birmingham and
Cambridge, the future doesn’t look bright.
In Kent, the high-speed rail link
has not brought more business to the county.
Instead, it has extended the
eastern borders of the London commuter zone.
Despite all the hype and Enterprise
Zone status, Discovery Park – the Pfizer site outside Sandwich –
has not, as yet, pulled in major business players and I doubt if it
will.
It is, quite simply, in the wrong
place. I have lost count of the number of times I have shared taxis
from Heathrow with Pfizer executives who have moaned about its
hopeless location.
The New Year message for Kent
policy makers is not to pursue pipe dreams but to wake up to the
realities of a dramatically changing global economy and to start
from there in developing realistic economic strategies.
I am often accused of being
pessimistic – I would prefer to be described as ‘realistic’.
- Richard Scase is the
author of more than 20 books, including Global Remix: the Fight for
Competitive Advantage (Kogan Page). More at www.richardscase.
com
Monday, January 09 2012
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