May 8: The end of new Labour in Kent
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I'VE absolutely no idea who is going to form the next
Government and whether it will be a formal coalition between the
parties or some other arrangement. Neither does anyone else just
now.
So, I'll leave that aside as whatever
I write is likely to be overtaken by events. My only observation
would be that the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are not
the most natural allies and the mutual loathing between them at
grass roots level is high (as anyone who witnessed the vitriol
between the two parties in Maidstone and the Weald
campaign can testify) and I imagine the leaders of the two are
going to have a major challenge in selling whatever arrangement
they come up with to the rank and file.
The irony is that
Cameron spent the campaign warning that a vote for
Brown was a vote for Clegg and
now there are Conservative party supporters who find that they
voted for Cameron and are likely to get...
Clegg.
It'll be interesting to see how some
of the county's newly-elected Conservative MPs - who have secured
huge majorities on the back of the first past-the-post system -
respond to the idea of a forced marriage although they may
chooose to keep their counsel whatever reservations they privately
might entertain.
So, where does the result
leave Labour in Kent? It was a crushing defeat for their MPs
and although the outcome was highly predictable given the
relatively small swings the Conservatives needed in the seven
marginal seats, the size of their victory suggest that Labour in
Kent will probably now be in the wilderness for about as long as
the Conservatives were, if not longer.
I do not see any prospect of Labour
making a quick return in the county and if there is as most expect
another election sooner rather than later, they could endure an
even more sound drubbing.
That won't stop some of those who lost
badly putting themselves forward as candidates, incidentally -
politicians are always optimistic that they can pull of some kind
of Lazarus-like return against the odds.
Some good, hard-working MPs have gone,
as they always do in elections. I remember the 1997 election and
precisely the same thing happened to Kent Conservative MPs who had
loyally served their constituencies and were similarly turfed out
by an electorate who made no allowance for their dutiful years of
service.
If there is any consolation for
Labour, it might be that the Lib Dems have not, as they hoped,
taken over as the main challenger to the Conservatives in the
county.
It is not much but at such times,
politicians especially defeated ones, seize any straws in the wind.
But the New Labour dream in Kent is well and truly over. It started
fading about the time Brown took over.
On the other hand, if you were to lose
any election, perhaps this was the one.
Saturday, May 08 2010
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