Voters
go to the polls on June 4 for an election that will determine who
will hold the reins of power at the country’s second largest
authority.
But will it be Conservative triumph or can Labour spring an
unlikely surprise? And could the Liberal Democrats exploit public
disaffection with both the main parties to build on their numbers?
Or will the public outcry over MPs allowances give a boost to the
minority parties?
KM Group Political Editor Paul Francis gives his
assessment of the party’s prospects ahead of next month’s vital
poll.
The main parties
Conventional political wisdom has it that elections are lost
rather than won.
In the case of the Kent County Council election on June 4, that
maxim seems unlikely to apply.
With the Conservatives already
firmly in control at County Hall and Labour nationally in disarray,
many people predict that on June 4, the local government map of
Kent will be turning a much deeper shade of blue.
The Conservatives, who hold 57 of the 84 seats up for grabs across
the whole county, are in an understandably buoyant mood.
While party candidates and activists might be doing their best to
rein in their upbeat mood, the party has legitimate grounds for its
optimism.
The election will take place against the backdrop of a Labour
government on the back foot over a series of controversial issues;
the huge row over MPs’ allowances and a Prime Minister whose
authority is increasingly being questioned.
The retreat over the issue of allowing the Ghurkas to stay in the
UK is an issue that has added resonance in Kent, where many
soldiers are based.
Privately, some Labour figures admit they are
braced for a dismal result that if truly bad could even see Gordon
Brown’s tenure as party leader brought to a juddering halt.
The Conservatives have other grounds for being confident. For the
first time since the early 1990s, the county council election is
taking place without a general election taking place at the same
time.
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As a result, Labour is likely to have much more difficulty
getting its supporters out with the party nationally plummeting in
the polls. Local elections are about local issues but are
notorious for being occasions when voters take the chance to give
their verdict on the current Government’s performance.
Against the backdrop of recent revelations, all three main parties
will be concerned at the possibility they will be punished by a
resentful electorate who will simply choose to stay at
home.
KCC Conservative leader Paul Carter describes the polls as
being of “enormous signficance” and is leading a campaign based
around what he says is the authority’s track record and its rating
as one of the country’s best performing authorities.
Although he rejects the claim that its reputation has been dented
by the on-going saga of the £50million KCC has tied up in Icelandic
banks and recent headlines about top officers’ pay, both are issues
that could cost valuable votes.
Cllr Dr Mike
Eddy, the Labour group leader, concedes his party is fighting
an election at an awkward time but is focusing heavily on what he
sees as KCC’s mismanagement of taxpayers’ money.
“The situation could be easier but I do not think the Labour
government was the cause of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage
market. If the people of Kent decide they want the Conservatives in
charge to waste more of their money, then I feel very sorry for
them,” he says.
Find out how KCC spends your taxpayers' cash - by clicking on
the video at the top right of this page
He insists there are pockets of the county where the party could
make gains but accepts the party will do well to hold on to the 19
seats it currently has.
For the Liberal Democrats, the smallest of
the three parties on KCC, the election represents a chance to
capitalise on public disaffection among Labour supporters and those
not yet persuaded that David Cameron’s Conservative party has
really changed.
“It is certainly a chance for us to take votes from Labour. It is
clear to us that many people are unhappy with the performance of
the Government, particularly in the last few weeks. It is also the
case that a lot of people are very cross about the Icelandic money
and top officers’ pay,” says group leader Cllr Trudy
Dean.
Whatever the outcome, the results will have far wider significance
than just who holds power at County Hall.
All the main parties will be pouring over the figures to see just
what it might all mean come the national election. And if the polls
are right, the Conservatives could be poised to become the dominant
force in Kent they once were under Margaret Thatcher.
The smaller parties
With disillusion with the main parties running high, some of the
smaller parties may feel their prospects of breaking their grip on
Kent county council have been enhanced.
However, with a first-past-the-post voting system in place, the
task of loosening the stranglehold of the three main
parties may yet prove to be too much of a challenge.
The Green Party is fielding a record number of 35 candidates, in
west Kent, Swale, Ashford, Canterbury and Sevenoaks. But the party
is playing down suggestions that 2009 could be the year that it
finally finds its way on to the county council.
Spokesman Steve Dawe, who is standing in Tonbridge, says: “Our vote
will go up but in terms of actually cracking some of these huge
Conservative majorities, that will be difficult. The
first-past-the-post system works against us.”
UKIP, which is doing increasingly well in the polls for the
European elections, are also fielding candidates, including five in
Maidstone and six in Shepway.
Its manifesto pledges include stopping KCC from setting up its own
commercial companies; capping senior officers’ salaries and
scrapping Kent TV, the authority’s controversial internet TV
station.
Also standing are 23 candidates for the English Democrats party,
which wants to see an English parliament established. Six are
standing in Dartford and seven in Tonbridge and Malling.
The BNP is also fielding a small number of candidates in
Ashford and Thanet and Shepway.
Election countdown – the key dates
Tuesday May 19: Last day for requests
to be included on Register of Electors and last day for postal vote
requests
Thursday June 4: Polling day, 7am to
10pm
Friday June 5: Election count. Results
expected in the morning.