Are house prices now cooling off?

Now the World Cup has finished we can forget about Messi, Rooney and Ronaldo for the rest of the summer and turn once again to one of our other favourite topics – house prices.

Although they rose in UK in the second quarter as the improving economy and rising confidence caught up with the demand, evidence suggests the market may be cooling.

According to a survey recently released by RICS on the UK residential market, house prices in the South East experienced the strongest price gains for the second consecutive month in June.

A Golding Homes development in Knights Way, Headcorn
A Golding Homes development in Knights Way, Headcorn

However, the rate of house price growth in the London market appears to be easing, which may have a knock-on effect for the rest of us living in the region.

Concerns the UK property market may be at risk of overheating prompted the Bank of England governor Mark Carney to announce measures last month to limit what he terms “risky mortgages”.

These included a new cap on high loan-to-income (LTI) loans and “stress tests” examining borrowers’ income and ability to pay.

It is hoped this will ensure they can afford at least a rise in base rate to 3%.

Mr Carney says these are an “insurance policy” rather than
an attempt to reverse increases but it appears the new affordability tests introduced in the recent Mortgage Market Review (MMR) have already had a dampening effect on increasing house prices.

So no immediate measures seem to be needed to further cool the market but they are being considered for the future.

In essence, what we are seeing is some of the very strong upward momentum starting to come off the housing market.

This is because higher prices, more prudent lending measures and some of the talk from the Bank of England is creating a level of caution among sellers and buyers.

The most visible indicators of this are the revised price increase expectations for the
next 12 months and the flatter picture regarding new buyer inquiries.

In particular, we’re seeing the London market level off and that historically impacts house prices in the South East too.

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