On May 1, electors go to the polls for 81 seats at Kent County Council, the final election before the authority is broken up to make way for a new local government structure in Kent.

Most seasoned observers believe that it will be a hung council. Local democracy reporter Simon Finlay shares an overview ahead of the polls…

There are many possible outcomes on May 1 and any one may come to pass.

The Conservatives could retain overall control of KCC but with far fewer members or could form a minority ruling administration if they fall short of the 41 required.

The latter scenario is thought to be a more likely outcome given its recent history as the ruling party forced to make uncomfortable cuts amid a government funding squeeze but might have to find a partner to govern.

Although Kent has long been regarded as a “Conservative” county, by and large, former Tory domains like Tunbridge Wells, support has evaporated.

The idea that Folkestone and Hythe could turn red from blue at Westminster in July 2024 would have been almost unthinkable a decade ago.

Reform UK might win enough seats to become the biggest party with overall control or take too few to form a minority authority. The party leader Nigel Farage would not commit to winning outright and few believe the pollster Electoral Calculus’s recent prediction that it would secure 41 seats.

If the Liberal Democrats, the Labour Party and Green Party plus sundry independents can secure the 41 seats in a target-driven campaign where tactical voting comes into play, a rainbow alliance is certainly not out of the question.

All might say publicly they want to take control, but how many privately believe they can?

However, the present leaders of those groups, observers say, could work together and take the authority into the phase where, under the government’s reorganisation programme, KCC effectively dismantles itself in three years time.

If the message to the voters, particularly the undecided, is to keep Reform UK and the Conservatives out of power at County Hall, that will require a certain level of collusion none of the parties might feel comfortable with or end up being self-defeating.

Only they can decide if it is a risk worth taking.

Both the Conservatives and Reform have stated categorically that neither will work with the other and that a coalition is totally out of the question.

A report titled “Ones To Watch” published by the Local Government Information Unit (LGiU), concludes that KCC is a “decidedly different contest” to the other county authorities being contested in the south of England.

Leaving aside the collapse of its parliamentary dominance of recent times (down from 16 MPs to six), the Conservatives have also lost control of a host of borough, city and and district councils.

The LGiU observes: “The Conservatives are starting with a healthy majority. But they may feel challenged by the strong performance of the Liberal Democrats in Tunbridge Wells in the recent general and local elections, the independent performance in Ashford a few years back, and most of all their recent losses of control in the City of Canterbury, Maidstone, Gravesham, Tonbridge and Malling, Thanet and Dover.

“Equally, there is an open question about the potential strength of Reform as a Conservative challenger, since they performed relatively well in places like Sevenoaks and Thanet in the general election, the latter of which used to be a UKIP-controlled council in the mid-2010s, and recent (Electoral Calculus) polling puts them in a strong place to win the council.

“Worth watching to see the strength of the Liberal Democrats and Reform challenging the Conservatives from different angles.”

National polling conducted by Electoral Calculus, in partnership with the Daily Telegraph, sees a collapse in the Tory vote from 46% in county elections in 2021 to 25% today, or from 1,420 seats to 688. Reform would also take a 25% share and slightly more seats (697). Labour and the Lib Dems would be on 18% (285 seats) and 17% (401) respectively while The Green Party is expected to poll 7% (44).

That Reform would take control of Kent County Council, is scarcely credited by the other parties as anything other than “unlikely”.

Across the country, says the pollster: “Our prediction is that the Conservatives will lose a large amount of support and councillors to Reform UK. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to make some gains while Labour might lose ground a little.

“The Green Party and independent candidates are more difficult to predict accurately, so their predictions are subject to a greater amount of uncertainty.”

The Green Party brand is strong in Kent.

Once seen as a collection of far-left, single issue obsessed cranks, it is now mainstream, with two exciting young leaders whose policies energise voters of all ages. Relentless house-building and pollution into coastal waters and rivers appear to validate the party’s long-held environmental stance.

It has paid dividends with local authority control of Maidstone and Folkestone and Hythe and a minority foothold with independents at Ashford.

Led at County Hall by Cllr Rich Lehmann, a genuine and diligent man, he is seen as “one for the future”, although retaining his Swale east seat is not a given.

The Liberal Democrats, who have finally put the ghost of Nick Clegg and his betrayal over tuition fees behind them, have found a leader that people actually like.

Those behind Sir Ed Davey realised that by performing humorous (and cheap) stunts, they have tapped into a format which grabs attention. His personal back story of a father looking after a severely disabled son has been deftly told and makes him seem “just like us”.

The Lib Dem leader at County Hall, Cllr Antony Hook, is a Kent man through and through. Educated, articulate and driven, the former MEP has long been on the radar.

He is the only politician at KCC with experience of frontline European politics and has a knack of being nobody’s fool while remaining on good terms with political opponents.

KCC Labour opposition leader, since Dr Lauren Sullivan stepped aside after she was elected to Westminster, is Alister Brady.

Although only being in the leader’s chair for a few months, Cllr Brady is widely regarded for his powerful and incisive speeches. He is also regarded as “one of the nice guys” in the chamber yet tough as old boots.

But the Labour government has started wobbling far faster than anyone would have imagined after its landslide victory in July 2024 and this has to be a fear among the Labour activists.

Should the trio in charge of the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems actually have to form some kind of working alliance, it is helpful that they are all on good terms and all level-headed.

While the Tories say they will not countenance a deal with Reform UK and vice-versa, one senior Tory back bencher would not rule out an arrangement with the Lib Dems if such a marriage of convenience is “for the good of Kent and the residents”.

And so to Reform UK. While the established parties are irked by the fact that a bunch of upstarts have come from nowhere to being regarded as contenders, some neutral observers are more alarmed by the lack of local government experience in its ranks.

Its leader Nigel Farage contends there is a talent pool in Kent, some of whom are entrepreneurs and business people.

The abject apology issued down on the coast after it printed the KCC logo on a party election leaflet seems to point to naivety or ignorance. Neither is a good look, not least because the police have now become involved.

For potential Reform voters, this experience deficit could, on reflection, drive them back into the arms of the others, simply because there is so much at stake currently. The biggest shake-up in local government in 50 years may need more than commercial nous and ambition, say experienced hands.

Certainly, the Conservatives claim this is being shown up in its extensive polling; that for this election, at least, Reform UK may present too much of a risk.

The Tories are also not entirely convinced that those who declare support for Mr Farage’s party will actually go out and vote.

But then again, history has shown that those with an axe to grind with the old order are precisely the people who will go out and vote on May 1.