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Voters still back Brexit... but support for leaving EU dips in most constituencies

Most voters in Kent continue to back Brexit but support for leaving the EU has dipped in most of the county’s parliamentary seats, a poll suggests.

An analysis of how people across Kent and Medway would vote in a referendum now compared with 2016 indicates that enthusiasm for Brexit has declined in all but one constituency.

The swing against Brexit varies and is insufficient for any Kent constituency to switch from ‘leave’ to ‘remain’, according to analysis commissioned jointly by two pro-EU campaign groups.

Kent voters views have changed
Kent voters views have changed

However, three Kent seats were among those in the south east that saw the highest swing towards remain.

Rochester and Strood - where Ukip seized the seat in a dramatic by-election in 2015 - saw an 8.4% swing away from backing Brexit.

According to the poll, 55.3% would back leaving now compared to 63.7% in the referendum two years ago.

It was followed by Dartford and Gravesham, who both saw a 7.5% swing against leaving.

Thanet North retained its status as Kent’s most Eurosceptic seat, with 58.4% of voters backing leave compared to 65% in 2016. But even here, there was a swing of 6.5% away from Brexit.

Support for leaving the EU has dipped in most of the county’s parliamentary seats
Support for leaving the EU has dipped in most of the county’s parliamentary seats

In neighbouring Thanet South, support for Brexit also remained strong with 57.1% supporting ‘leave’ compared to 61.6% in the referendum. The seat saw a hotly-contested election contest in 2015, when then Ukip leader Nigel Farage lost to Conservative Craig Mackinlay.

Two constituencies which backed staying in the EU at the referendum saw support for remain rise but only marginally.

In Canterbury, the only Labour held seat in Kent, 57.2% of voters would back remain now - compared to 54.7% in 2016. In Tunbridge Wells, the constituency held by the business secretary Greg Clark, 56.2% would back remain compared to 55.3% in the actual referendum.

The one seat that bucked the trend was Tonbridge and Malling, which saw a minor fall in voters backing remain from 47.4% to 47.2% - a drop of 0.2%.

In the national referendum in 2016, Kent saw 59% of voters calling for the UK to leave the EU.

Reaction in Kent to the poll findings was predictably mixed. Nicole Bushill, chairman of Kent Ukip, dismissed the findings as a “statistical blip” and part of a wider campaign to halt Brexit.

“I have my concerns that ever since the referendum, there has been a campaign by the mainstream media and the political elite to push us to a position of having a second referendum. If you asked 17.4m of those who backed Brexit two years ago, most would stick by their decision. This is just a statistical blip,” she said.

Nick Kennard, of the Sevenoaks branch of pro-EU group Together in Europe, said: “We do detect a recent change in mood now that the impact and implications of Brexit are becoming clearer and many promises of the Leave campaign will not materialise. The general feeling is that the current situation is a mess, nobody will get what they want and that people actively want a say on what ultimately happens.”

Brexit
Brexit

The study was jointly commissioned by the pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain and Hope Not Hate. It found that across the UK, 112 seats had switched from Leave to Remain.

Researchers at the Focaldata consumer analytics company compiled the breakdown by modelling two YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people in total, conducted before and after Theresa May published her proposed Brexit deal on 6 July.

Eloise Todd, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: "People across the South East have witnessed the last two years of uncertainty with dismay and are thinking differently. The sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind.”

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