Electors go to the polls on May 1 to return members to Kent County Council for the last time before a big shake-up in local government.

How big an influence tactical voting will be in deciding the outcome, no one can currently say. Local democracy reporter Simon Finlay sizes up a dozen seats that are “ones to watch”…

Most observers cannot call who will be in charge of Kent County Council by May 2 but most agree that it will be hung, where there is no one party in overall control.

The perceived weakness of the Conservative and Labour brands (largely due to the unfavourable national picture), the relentless rise of Reform UK and the appeal of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats have made predictions difficult.

All have their private targets, based on the seats they know they are fairly sure they will win or know that they can.

The Conservatives, for instance, will take some comfort from the fact postal ballots (which now make up a significant proportion of the turnout) tend to favour them and not other parties. So everyone will be scrambling to get the vote out on what will be a warm, sunny day when the polling stations open.

It appears that, for many, the unknown is the tactical voter. A switch from the Conservatives to Reform UK is, arguably, not a tactical move any longer as the general election results and performances in the polls since has indicated.

Can a shift from Labour to Reform UK in Kent be reasonably described as tactical?

Electoral Calculus, whose recent poll indicates an outright Reform UK win at Kent County Council on May 1, noticed some interesting trends emerging from the general election last year.

Read more: Candidates standing for the election to Kent County Council

Its survey showed that in seats where Labour was not expected to win, 54% would still stick with Labour but 24% would drift to the Lib Dems and 22% to the Green Party. None would go to the Conservatives or Reform UK.

The pollster concludes: “Therefore, in seats where the Lib Dems are competitive but Labour are not, our model will allocate 24% of Labour's support to the Lib Dems. In seats where the Greens are competitive but Labour are not, 22% of Labour's support will be allocated to the Greens.

“Each party's supporters will engage in tactical voting to different levels, and in different directions. In 2024, there was a lot of anti-Conservative tactical voting between Labour, Lib Dem and Green party supporters, but less so between Conservative and Reform voters.”

None of this takes into account those ultra-local issues in each KCC division but since the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are mounting targeted campaigns in Kent, it would suggest both will need a helping hand from left-leaning supporters.

This, in turn, could assist in ensuring favourable voting shifts for Labour, too.

As reported previously, there is some indication in Conservative polling in Kent that freshly minted Reform supporters are prepared to switch back to the Tories on May 1 for the sake of the county and its immediate future. There appears to be a perception, rightly or wrongly, that Reform is inexperienced.

Pollsters YouGov believe that tactical voters may behave strangely in order to keep Reform UK out. While the party and its leader Nigel Farage are increasingly popular, more than half have a negative view of both.

YouGov says: “This calls into question Reform UK’s vulnerability to the same sort of tactical voting machine that geared into action last year to hand the Conservatives their worst ever election result. If left wing voters – and enough Tories – are determined to keep Reform UK out, could that prove an insurmountable obstacle for Nigel Farage and his party?”

Arguably in such a fluid election all seats have the potential for an upset, but here is a run-down of Simon Finlay’s dozen “ones to watch” where tactics may come into play...

Canterbury North

The Conservative cabinet member Rob Thomas, who took more than half of the vote in 2021, is standing down. Lib Dem city councillor Alex Ricketts fancies his chances in this division, particularly since Reform UK’s Dirk Ross might split the right-wing vote. The Lib Dems have grown stronger in this area in recent years.

BAX Michael, Green Party

RICKETTS, Alex James - Liberal Democrats

ROSS Dirk - Reform UK

SCOTT, Hilary Jane Louise - The Conservative

VANSTONE-HALLAM, Owen John - Labour Party

Whitstable West

Held by the outgoing Conservative member Mark Dance, this is a solid Green Party target, based on work done by its members on the ground. The right-wing vote may be split by Reform UK, easing the Greens’ passage to victory.

BLANFORD, Gary Alfred - Heritage Party

CORNELL, Chris - Labour Party

HEAVER, Stuart - Green Party

PAGET, Grace Taylor - The Conservative Party

PALMER, Christopher Joslin - Liberal Democrats

THOMAS, Babychan Manianchira - Reform UK

Cranbrook

All five of the seats in Tunbridge Wells (East, North, Rural, South and West) are expected to be Lib Dem targets but out on its edge in Cranbrook, where the long-serving Conservative Sean Holden is standing down, the Green Party and the Tunbridge Wells Alliance scent a chance, but would require a tactical vote. However, on paper, the Tory candidate Claudine Russell, from Marden, should win.

GAVRILOVA, Lucie - Reform UK

HOLDER, Gregory James - Labour Party

LITTLECHILD, Dan - Independents for Tunbridge Wells

NEVILLE, Ellen - Tunbridge Wells Alliance

RUSSELL, Claudine Jane - Conservative Party Candidate

WIDGERY, Vivian Alice - Liberal Democrats

YEO, Helen Claire - Green Party

Margate

Former Labour councillor Barry Lewis parted company from his party at County Hall last year and has kept his profile high by campaigning to save the family hub services at the Millmead centre. Unless Labour voters get behind Cllr Lewis or vice versa, this could easily fall into Reform’s lap.

BROWN Matthew David - Lib Dem

HENDERSON Jamie - Reform UK

LEWIS Barry - Independent

PACKMAN Jack - Labour

RATTIGAN Marc Lee - Conservative

Whitstable and Herne Bay West

Incumbent Conservative Neil Baker is well thought of and high profile in his cabinet role for highways and transport but knows he is in for a fight with Reform’s Adrian Kibble.

BAKER, Neil Stephen - Conservative Party

DAVIDSON, Andy - Labour Party

DAWSON O`DONNELL, Joshua - Independent

HARVEY, Andrew - Green Party

KIBBLE, Adrian John - Reform UK

PARRY, Nick - Liberal Democrats

Maidstone South East

Former Tory KCC chairman Gary Cooke is standing down from this division, which is in an area of the Maidstone borough heavily developed in recent years and where the roads are under tremendous pressure. It also takes in large established housing estates with a significant working class, right wing vote. There is also a large traditional Conservative vote, but now it is a Reform UK target. Looks like a straight two-way fight.

CHESSON, Richard George - Conservative Party

KEMKARAN, Linden Mary- Reform UK

NAGHI, David - Liberal Democrats

OLADIMEJI, Tim - Labour Party

RICHER, Caroline Anita - Green Party

RUSTEM, Lawrence - British Democrats

Cheriton, Sandgate and Hythe East

Conservative Rory Love scraped in by 21 votes in 2021 and despite having a high profile role in cabinet for education, the presence of Reform UK could see the Liberal Democrat Tim Prater take his seat at County Hall.

BURTON, Gary - Reform UK

DAVIES, Alex - Labour Party

KHANOM, Momtaz - The Green Party

LOVE, Rory The Conservative Party Candidate

PRATER, Tim - Liberal Democrats

Swale East

Green Party group leader at County Hall, Rich Lehmann, won a three-way contest in 2021 with more than half the vote. But the divisive 8,400 home development at Highsted Park could see Conservative Julien Speed in with a decent shout.

GIBSON, Charles Alexander - Liberal Democrats

KIDBY, Ryan - Reform UK

LEHMANN, Rich - Green Party

REHAL, Frances - Labour Party

SPEED, Julien Peter - Conservative Party Candidate

Malling North

Long-standing Conservative Sarah Hohler is stepping down. Despite capturing 64% of the vote last time, this is seen as a Labour target, particularly for votes in Snodland, with Reform UK as an outside bet.

BETTS, Robin Patrick - Conservative Party Candidate

BROADLEY, Matt - The Green Party

HICKMOTT, Paul - Labour Party

O'SHEA, Kate - Liberal Democrat

SIAN, Dodger - Reform UK

Maidstone Central

This two-seater is being hammered by the Green Party’s Stuart Jeffery and Rachel Rodwell. Currently held by Conservative Tom Cannon and Lib Dem Chris Passmore, it is seen as one of the most difficult to predict and where tactical voting will almost certainly play a part in determining the result.

CANNON, Tom - Conservative Party

FORECAST, Stan - Conservative Party

HARWOOD, Tony Peter - Liberal Democrats

PASSMORE, Chris - Liberal Democrats

SWAN, Derek - Labour Party

WILKINSON, Joanna - Labour Party

JEFFERY, Stuart Robert - Green Party

RODWELL, Rachel Elizabeth - Green Party

BRADSHAW, Oliver James - Reform UK

JARVIS, Peter Stephen - Reform UK

Dartford North East

Although the Green Party polled just 13% in 2021, Labour’s incumbent Kelly Grehan is now seen as vulnerable. She pipped the Conservatives into second last time. The division is of sufficient interest that Green Party joint leader Carla Denyer visited last Friday. Labour will argue it is a straight Labour v Reform battle.

EDIE, Laura - The Green Party

FRYER, Ben Robert - Reform UK

GREHAN, Kelly Jane - Labour Party

QUAQUMEY, Clement - Local Conservatives

Sheppey

This two-seat division is messy. In 2021, it returned two Conservatives. Andy Booth remained while Mike Whiting, who gained his seat in a by-election in 2023, later left the Tories. Both are vulnerable to Reform UK. Cllr Whiting’s profile as pro-SeaShells family hub campaigner and battler for school places on the island should stand him in good stead but may not be enough.

BANKS, Sam - Green Party

BOOTH, Andy - Conservative Party Candidate

BRAWN, Hayden Anthony - Labour Party

BRINKLOW, Linda Ann - Liberal Democrats

HARRISON, Maxwell Stanley - Reform UK

JAYES, Elliott Matthew - Swale Independents putting Sheppey first

KEMP, Isabella Kathleen - Reform UK

STENNINGS, Frances Elizabeth - Liberal Democrats

TUCKER, Mark - Conservative Party Candidate

WHITING, Mike - Independent

WOOSTER, Dolley Jean - Labour Party