After more than four years of negotiations, a 'no-deal Brexit' is now "very, very likely" according to the Prime Minister.

As the county nearest to the continent, Kent is likely to bear the brunt once the January 1 transition deadline is reached.

Traffic

One of the most obvious and anticipated impacts will be with congestion, as wait times at the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel are expected to increase dramatically.

This will be due to longer processing and customs checks, and many mitigation strategies have been prepared ahead of January.

A lorry park is being built in Ashford to keep more lorries from parking on the streets, and to act as a forward customs depot.

Currently work on the lorry park is being carried out 24/7 in an attempt to get it finished on time following heavy rain.

Being built on a greenfield site, the area's ecology could have been severely impacted but a KentOnline Freedom of Information request into the environmental cost was declined.

Dover TAP, standing for Traffic Assessment Project, will be the first line of defence as the speed limit is reduced to 40mph and lorries are made to line up on the left lane of the A20 towards the port.

Operation Brock has also been devised to ease impact on residents - a scheme where a central lane of the M20 will be used as a lorry holding queue, Manston airport would serve as a freight waiting area, and port-bound freight will be held along the A20 and A256.

Tests on the M20 'contra-flow system' are already causing closures of the motorway in preparation for the end of the month.

Among the effects of this widespread congestion could be disruption in distributing medical supplies and increased difficulty for Kent residents in accessing health services.

There are concerns that illegally parked trucks could also become an issue, with Kent County Council being granted special powers to clamp and issue fines to drivers caught doing it.

The 'worst-case scenario' that's been prepared for is 7,000 lorries waiting in the county, however it's not been made clear what would happen if this number is exceeded.

Shopping and industry

Another way a no-deal Brexit will affect the people of Kent is on our pockets.

As no deal seems more likely, Britain will be trading with the EU under World Trade Organisation terms so the EU itself can set tariffs on goods.

With no free trade deal existing with the EU, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has said UK supermarkets and their shoppers will face an annual £3.1 billion tariff bill for food and drink.

In May, the government unveiled a tariff schedule to be used if no deal was reached, which would mean 85% of foods imported from the EU will face tariffs of more than 5%, while the average tariff on food imported from the EU would be over 20%.

For one example, experts are encouraging people to buy Cheddar cheese to avoid paying a 40% tariff on Brie.

There are fears that such price hikes could force smaller shops to go out of business, as speciality items become more expensive and shoppers are less likely to pay the higher price.

Another key area that will be impacted is the automotive industry, whose leaders are warning of a "catastrophic" impact if tariffs are imposed.

Under the WTO non-preferential rules, a 10% tariff would be introduced on cars and up to 22% on vans and trucks.

It would seriously damage companies on both sides of The Channel, and it's estimated the production of three million EU and UK-built cars and vans would be put at risk

It's predicted that a no-deal outcome would mean combined EU-UK trade losses worth up to €110 billion to 2025.

Also fearing the worst are Kent's agricultural businesses.

Kent wine producers express their concerns in the event of no-deal Brexit.

Relying heavily on seasonal workers - the majority from EU countries - there are worries that harvests will go to waste due to delays in picking and processing.

The lack of migrant labour is a major concern, with experts saying it could mean an end to many horticultural-based business.

Travel

Kent's proximity to the continent has always been one of the county's key selling points.

With the Port of Dover, the Channel Tunnel and Eurostar on our doorstep, it was simple to visit France or Belgium for a day trip.

Obviously Covid-19 has halted such travel for now, but it's likely to be more difficult even after coronavirus regulations are lifted.

At ports, there will be the aforementioned queues and traffic mitigation schemes to get through.

UK citizens will no longer be able to use the fast-track passport control and customs lanes at ports or airports.

People in the UK will still be able to travel to most EU nations visa-free for up to six months in a year but may need a visa or permit to stay for longer - especially if they have plans to work or study in that country.

A 'visa-waiver permit' system is being introduced by the EU which would cost €7 (£6.40) and last for multiple visits for three years. However this is not being implemented until the end of 2022.

Furthermore, European Health Insurance Cards will become all but worthless and it's likely travel insurance to the EU could rise in price.

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