Reform UK has had a tough time of late, with the loss of the Caerphilly by-election and internal scraps at various councils across the country.

Here in Kent, the massive election result in May, which saw the Tories decimated and Reform win 57 seats, seems a long time ago.

Linden Kemkaran’s leadership has hit choppy waters, and after defections, suspensions and expulsions, her majority is down to 17.

For some time now, pretty much since last December when Farage’s party overtook Labour in a national poll, there’s been a perceived wisdom that Reform will form the next government.

But it goes beyond that. It’s basically felt like they are untouchable, with both the Tories and Labour trying anything to imitate or challenge them and always being outflanked.

But the recent spiral of bad news stories, with councillors falling out with each other and with the national party, has severely damaged this, while the Caerphilly by-election was a major blow.

Don’t get me wrong, Reform did very well, gaining more than 36% of the vote, consigning Labour into a distant third place - but second place parties don’t form governments.

On the now infamous Zoom call, Cllr Kemkaran said her administration was being watched very closely and was “the shop window” for Reform.

She’s absolutely right, but, after all this (and after another four years), how many people will be willing to put their money down?

Anecdotally, I’ve spoken with Reform supporters who have seen what’s going on at KCC and aren’t impressed - though I’ve also spoken with people who don’t think it’s such a big deal.

Reform has attracted plenty of former Tory politicians, but are traditional Tory voters guaranteed to follow?

The argument the Conservatives have always used is that they are the most experienced party of government, and at the next election, Labour are bound to make the incumbent argument.

At the moment, both of these would be hard sells, but if Reform keeps stumbling, keeps tearing itself apart, it might be an easier pill for the electorate to swallow.

The wildcard, however, is Nigel Farage. It’s entirely plausible to me that while people may become unhappy with their local Reform groups, they still have faith in the man at the top.

Whether this is enough to carry them over the line, I simply don’t know, but they could fall short and end up a very close - but nonetheless - second place.