Can local elections really reveal the mood of the country when so few registered voters bother to go to the polls?

Ahead of the KCC elections next week, local democracy reporter Robert Boddy looks at poor turnout and ponders why the public can't be more engaged…

Local elections are coming up and great significance will be placed on whatever the result may be, as it will be read as an indication of the mood of the country and a determination of Starmer’s government so far.

But is this really accurate? For starters, the last time KCC was up for election was in 2021 when Boris Johnson was PM and immensely popular, Lib Dems and Greens weren’t really a force, and Reform was still struggling under the leadership of Richard Tice.

On the same day as those local elections, there was also the Hartlepool by-election which saw the Tories win that seat, and Keir Starmer was on rocky ground, with some suggesting he should go before the next general election.

So even before we get to the polling booth, there’s an array of circumstances which confuse things and don’t provide an easy interpretation.

But something I think stops local elections from being a truly reliable bellwether is the simple fact that a fraction of the people who vote in general elections bother to vote in locals.

I recently took a look at some stats behind the February by-elections in Medway and found the cost of running them was £14.30 per vote because only one in five registered voters actually made the effort.

If all of the 21,000 possible voters had used their democratic right, instead of the mere 4,225, the cost would have been just £2.80 per vote instead.

Covering local government, I hear a lot of people complain about wasted money and overspending on frivolous projects - but here’s a service the council must provide and barely anyone is interested.

And these by-elections are not an anomaly. I would be very surprised if the turnout at the elections on May 1 breaks 35%, despite all of the decisions which KCC makes affecting voters’ lives.

It’s not that people are allergic to voting - the general election saw turnouts more than double the average turnout of local elections - so why don’t they show up?

Well, when there’s a general election there’s one date where everyone knows they have the right to vote, but with councils it’s all over the shop.

KCC will see elections, but Medway Council won’t, and neither will the district and borough councils.

The district councils and borough councils had elections in 2023, except for Tunbridge Wells which has been in the absurd situation of having an election every year since 2021.

I don’t think it’s a crazy idea to suggest all local councils across the country should be elected on the same day - it’ll make it much easier to publicise and voters won’t have the excuse of not knowing.

“Politicians need to win votes, but in local elections you only need to win the votes of those who are bothered to vote…”

But it’s not just a lack of awareness which puts people off voting.

I went out to ask people in the Medway by-election wards why they don’t vote and heard many of the same things again and again.

“Politicians make promises they don’t keep” and “it won’t make a difference” came up repeatedly - but is that a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Politicians need to win votes, but in local elections you only need to win the votes of those who are bothered to vote - in an entirely cynical vision of the world, if you aren’t going to vote why should a politician waste their time trying to help you when they could be helping someone who will vote?

I’m not saying this is the way politicians do think (or at least I can’t prove that), and I’m not saying that the choice not to vote is not a perfectly valid one.

But it needs to be a choice - you can’t forget to vote and then say “Well, there’s no one worth voting for anyway” to justify it.

With the plans for local government reorganisation I hope some work is put into actually getting people interested in voting in local elections because people do care about their local areas.

And if you think politicians are so craven, self-serving, and not actually interested in helping their community, why would you allow them to get away with being elected?

If we saw higher turnouts at local elections, I would be more willing to accept them as a measure of how the country is feeling politically - but until then, I’m not so sure.

There are plenty of ways to stay in the know when it comes to politics in Kent and Medway.

For more from Robert Boddy and the local democracy team, you can sign up to the Kent Politics Briefing newsletter, which arrives in inboxes every Friday.

You can also listen to our Kent Politics Podcast. This week’s episode welcomes Cllr Teresa Murray, the deputy leader of Medway Council, who highlights a worrying trend in Medway which is seeing the number of young people visiting GPs with mental health issues spiral.

You can listen to the podcast at IM Listening, or download it from Apple Podcasts, Spotify and TuneIn – just search for Kent Politics Podcast. New episodes are available every Friday.

And you can watch the KMTV Kent Politics Show every Friday at 5pm on Freeview channel 7 and Virgin Media channel 159.