The Kent County Council member for Malling North East, Andrew Kennedy, has taken the bold and slightly unusual step of crowd-funding his re-election campaign. He needs £2,000.

He tells his would-be GoFundMe donors that “although elected as a Conservative, I have always been fiercely independent, often voting against my party when what is proposed is against the best interest of the communities I represent”.

As of yesterday, he had raised £425, and the top contributor (of £100) is one Andrew Kennedy.

It probably says something about the state of the Conservative Party finances presently that an established member must seek campaign expenses from outside the organisation.

Cllr Kennedy is an experienced campaigner who knows how to win but he also senses dangers. The principal peril is Reform UK.

Bearing in mind that he took the seat in 2021 with 73% of the vote, with Labour in a distant second, the terrain before him in 2025 is bumpier and strewn with obstacles.

Well-placed Tory sources suggest polling puts Reform UK with an upper-end potential vote share of 35% in Cllr Kennedy's division, with a Conservative vote lower end estimate of 45%.

The other three parties may take an equal share of what is left.

The incumbency factor is a massive issue in seats like these but the Conservatives are thought to be losing around 30 of its existing 60 (of 81 seats) sitting councillors.

Those who are fighting seats for the first time will have to “fight bloody hard”, says a Conservative source.

One interesting ripple from the polling is that created by the shocking scenes last Friday between US President Donald Trump and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Reform leader Nigel Farage’s closeness to Mr Trump, as he rampages into his second term, has dented his personal popularity at home and could send Reform voters back to the Tories on May 1.

Sir Keir Starmer’s elevation to peace-making statesman in recent days should also help Labour’s lot in Kent.

Suddenly, the winter fuel allowance changes, farmers’ inheritance tax and national insurance hikes appear temporarily forgotten as the choreographed support for Zelensky by Sir Keir and King Charles captures British sentiment. Let’s face it, most of us watched the exchange in the Oval office with a fusion of fear, disgust and sympathy.

But May 1 is a long, long way from here to there, to borrow from the Irish singer Christy Moore.

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