The end is not nigh, but what happens next will certainly not be comfortable for Keir Starmer.

Since last year’s election, I must’ve heard more than 1,000 times that the Prime Minister is on his way out.

On borrowed time, heads will roll, collapse imminent - it’s all been said.

In fact, I even heard someone utter the phrase “beginning of the end for Keir Starmer” the very morning after Labour had just won its landslide victory.

This nonsense is mostly spouted by people who are trying to convince you that everything is going wrong in order to paint themselves as well put together and ready to step in.

Reform asks you to forget their in-fighting (Rupert Lowe, Zia Yusuf, et al) and the Tories ask you to forget their term in government and everything they did during it. But now something legitimately serious faces Keir Starmer in the shape of a government-defeating rebellion over benefits changes.

An amendment signed by more than 120 Labour MPs (at the time of writing) has forced the government to severely knobble the reforms estimated to save the government £5 billion - more than just a bit of egg on the face.

Rumours are circling about what defeat would’ve meant for the government, and even when the situation is genuinely serious, there’s overinflated rubbish making the rounds.

I will happily put money on there not being a general election nor a leadership challenge even had the government lost - or only limped across the line with opposition help - but regardless this will seriously change the behaviour of the government.

The power of a huge majority is that a government can do anything it wants, can win any vote it likes, does not need to carefully balance various factions… but it does need to keep those voting happy.

MPs weren’t pleased with the winter fuel cuts, but accepted the argument that a good chunk of pensioners were well-off enough not to need it.

But there’s not really the same case when talking about disabled people or those with long-term sickness.

And following the U-turn on the winter fuel, MPs were right to think enough public pressure can cause the government to bend.

Their gamble was that Starmer wants to avoid the resulting headlines so much that he would adjust his plans sufficiently to prevent defeat.

I thought the two most likely outcomes were that the bill would just squeak through as a couple of MPs who gave their name to the amendment lost their nerve, or the government would make as few concessions as it could manage to get it over the line.

“This has definitely been a defeat, but this is not curtains for Starmer. Highly embarrassing? Politically damaging? Absolutely. Fatal? No…”

It turned out that the latter was right.

But the spell that the government, I think, has held over its MPs that “we’ve won for the first time in ages, be grateful and do what we say” has now broken - or at least is significantly damaged.

I expect more flexibility in the future from the government towards its backbenchers, as although some were coaxed back onside for this welfare bill, there will be a lot of favours owed.

There has been a perspective of MPs being a tool for the Prime Minister to use -now the MPs have woken up and might be more willing to assert themselves and want a bit more take for their give.

This has definitely been a defeat, but this is not curtains for Starmer. Highly embarrassing? Politically damaging? Absolutely. Fatal? No.

Although MPs will know he’s not invincible, he is still the leader who won them an election for the first time in over a decade - that carries a lot of weight.

But the relationship between the government and Labour MPs has fundamentally changed now.

Starmer can still go big and use that huge majority, but he can’t expect them to follow him into everything anymore.

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