Local democracy reporter Simon Finlay considers the increasingly “mutinous, intolerant and vexatious” mood among the electorate and muses on what it could mean for the established parties in the face of the Reform insurgency.

When Indira Gandhi lost the 1977 Indian general election, one English language daily newspaper noted the “tearaway gap” inflicted by the Janata Party “pointed to the fury of the lashing wave”.

Mrs Gandhi is now restored to the affections of Mother India to such a degree it named its biggest airport after her. Today, its current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, whose own BJP party is linked to her conquerors, stares down from billboards all over that vast, intricate and complicated country with a look of benign menace.

It appears the lashing wave is washing ashore here, too.

Nothing seems to slow the rise of Reform UK and it is not yet apparent where its ceiling lies.

Some national polling has the party top of the heap and pollsters at Electoral Calculus now say it may take eight parliamentary seats in Kent.

At council by-elections across the country, Reform UK has started to poll 30% plus and has won a handful of seats in Kent, most recently two in Medway.

It is not the numbers that matter but the symbolism. The May elections to Tory-led Kent County Council (KCC) are back on after the government blocked Kent’s passage to the vaunted devolution “priority programme”.

Some Conservative backbenchers are bracing themselves for heavy defeats, not least because the national picture is so dire, but also as many popular incumbents (perhaps up to 30) are standing down.

It is said that some private polling carried out by the Conservatives in Kent seems to paint a rosier picture; that the party could retain control of KCC.

This is based on Labour voters deserting to Reform, as the survey suggests, and Reform supporters voting Tory.

The polling sample is said to be large and implies Labour could be wiped out at County Hall.

Whether it comes to pass will become apparent on May 1.

Reform UK, like UKIP before it, is unproven and if it does win power anywhere, it will have to prove to the people it has the wherewithal to turn rhetoric into discipline and prudent administration.

Nationally, Labour and Conservatives need not fear Reform UK but the lashing wave. The electorate has become mutinous, intolerant and vexatious. Volatility has morphed into a weird normality, confounding accepted mores and inducing panic in the established order.

In short, people are broke and feel let down. The disaffected feel ill-served, treated as chattels not individuals with their own worlds, desires and aspirations. To them, life can sometimes appear cruel and unfair. They do not trust the new boss, any more than they respect the old boss.

Sir Keir Starmer has hardly been given a chance and, given his mandate, deserves that chance. But the discontented have no patience for any of it, some spurred on by social media’s instant gratification and puddle-deep public discourse.

No one understands this sentiment better than Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage.

These are perilous times. How the old order counters the threat from the lashing wave is a far greater challenge than any presented by Reform UK.

Far from riding the surf, both Labour and the Conservatives appear to be engulfed by it.

While Reform UK’s ship stays afloat, all it seems the captain has to do presently is prevent it being swept onto the rocks.

There are plenty of ways to stay in the know when it comes to politics in Kent and Medway.

For more from Simon Finlay and the local democracy team, you can sign up to the Kent Politics Briefing newsletter, which arrives in inboxes every Friday.

You can also listen to our Kent Politics Podcast. In this week’s episode, our reporters discuss some good news for Conservatives at County Hall, recent wins for Reform in Medway and Labour’s tough talk on immigration, and there’s an interview with KCC councillor Sean Holden.

You can listen to the podcast at IM Listening, or download it from Apple Podcasts, Spotify and TuneIn – just search for Kent Politics Podcast. New episodes are available every Friday.

And you can watch the KMTV Politics Show every Friday at 5pm on Freeview channel 7 and Virgin Media channel 159.