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A little over a month ago, Reform UK stormed to victory at the Kent County Council elections with 57 of the 81 seats.
Yet 63% of electors who cast ballots did not vote for Nigel Farage’s party. Local democracy reporter Simon Finlay went to Romney Marsh to ask non-Reform voters why a “political earthquake” occurred on May 1…
High above the church in Lydd flies the Ukrainian flag, its colours resolutely billowing in a stiff wind and set against a grey, early summer sky.
It is not just a sign of solidarity to a beleaguered and defiant people under a terrible, uncalled-for onslaught of a murderous aggressor. It’s also a reassuring nod to the soldiers from Ukraine training on the military ranges nearby.
The priest at All Saints, Fr Jack Greenhalf, is standing outside his rectory dragging on a roll-up, which he holds inside his palm like a docker. Dressed head to foot in black (save for his white collar, red cross and rainbow lapel badges), he welcomes his visitors inside to a slightly chaotic study which is clearly a place of work and contemplation; possibly prayer, too.
The irony of the flag above his church is not lost on Fr Jack, as he is known, given Kent County Council’s newly-minted Reform UK leadership’s decision to remove the symbol from the chamber and building it now dominates so completely.
But this is Romney Marsh, where 64% of voters voted for Reform’s David Wimble, with a near 3,000 majority over the Conservative incumbent Tony Hills - a parliamentary-size majority in a county division. He says Nigel Farage told him it was the biggest winning margin of any council candidate in the country.
Fr Jack, team vicar for the whole of the Marsh for only a year, who prefers to listen more than he speaks, has been struck by what has been bubbling under the surface in his community for some time.
The former Sussex police officer clearly does not want to make glib assumptions or generalise about how his flock is feeling but he detects the rise of Reform is, above all, down to one factor.
“These conversations always come back to the same thing - fear. Fear seems to be the overriding emotion, coupled with a good deal of anger and frustration at the two main parties.
“There’s a perception of the loss of Britishness in the country… fear of the immigrant is quite high on the list. Fear for future generations and what sort of country they will inherit. There’s a fear of extremist Islam which is so often brought to the forefront. That’s what I’m hearing.”
The 39-year-old dad of three cites the maxim coined by Mark Twain that history doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes. That people are fed up with the status quo and are pushed to the political margins is hardly new and is happening all over the world.
He recalls how one woman said recently that in the absence of a credible two-party system, who else is there but Reform?
Is Reform playing on fear?
“Yes, absolutely. I do believe that fear is being stoked and played on. I don’t think there is much room for doubt on that. The Bible is full of examples of people making rash decisions at times of high emotions.”
As a recently-qualified RNLI lifeboatman and chaplain to its crew, he is also aware of the powerful symbolism of the small boats crisis which often lands, literally, on the shores here and is not prepared to “demonise” anyone from either side.
Whilst he recognises that people in this deprived area of Kent are struggling, the notion that migrants are coming off the small boats into “a life of Riley” is “patently untrue”.
Fr Jack is watching events at KCC unfold with some interest as Reform UK storms up the national polls (Electoral Calculus has Nigel Farage’s party on course to comfortably win the next general election).
“Local government is a world away from national government…it will be interesting to see what happens (at KCC).”
KCC will abolish itself, under Reform UK, as will 13 other elected councils in Kent in the government’s plans for local authority reforms in a bid to replace them with a smaller number of larger unitary authorities.
The truth is, Reform won 37% of a 33% turnout, which is near-enough normal for a county election. As was expected, it did well in deprived coastal divisions.
Romney Marsh is a place of harsh contrasts - from the desolate grandeur of Derek Jarman’s cottage gazing out over Dungeness beach with the power stations’ spectral silhouette looming in the distance to the candy floss and caravan parks of Dymchurch.
Inland, flat farmland is dotted with sheep, looker huts and punctuated by dykes while ancient churches sit in odd places. Sometimes seemingly incongruous, it is perfectly natural; homely even.
The Marsh’s many wonders were what brought Rev Canon Sheila McLachlan, who sits on New Romney Town Council from Kingsnorth 10 years ago.
She would probably have voted for Conservative Tony Hills, not because she is a Tory, but because she believes him to be a “thoroughly decent” man. A hospital stay meant she was unable to get to the polling station.
“I think that Reform UK is doing well because of a national backlash. The cost-of-living crisis we are facing and the decision to cut the winter fuel allowance have had a huge impact and angered a lot of people.
“Labour got in with an overwhelming majority and have really messed up since. You often get a backlash in the mid-term and to some extent Reform is a protest vote over the situation Labour has put itself into.
“But if there was a general election would Reform get in? No, I don’t think they would. It would probably be a hung parliament.
“I am also concerned that we have a county council where there are a lot of new members with little or no political experience or local government expertise.
“Given that local government reorganisation is coming in and getting rid of some areas, I just can’t see how they (Reform) will cope with it. I don’t see a good ending.”
Paul Thomas, a former New Romney mayor, has just returned from Vienna where he spoke about nuclear energy to the United Nations.
He watched the KCC elections closely and can see why Reform UK won here so convincingly - constant promotion, visibility and issue-driven literature.
The victor, Cllr Wimble - who had a profile long before he stood for KCC, having served on local councils in the area - certainly delivered on all of those criteria.
Cllr Thomas, who sits as an independent, says: “Around here the age demographic is quite high and older people don’t necessarily use social media in the way that younger people do, so they will respond to a leaflet through the door, especially if it is the only one they have received.
“You are giving them something they can hold in their hands. They’ll tell you that they will vote for the person who has put something through their door or met them on the doorstep or in the street.”
Aside from the small boats crisis (which neither main party has managed to solve), Reform UK hammered opposition to solar farms, a totemic subject. There are several planned for the Marsh, two of which are so large they could be designated ‘nationally significant infrastructure projects’ and will be decided on by the Secretary of State.
Mr Thomas says it was a shrewd move, message wise, since few if any locals want them, and should the government pass the big ones, Reform’s opposition is on record for all to see.
But the party’s popularity is down to Mr Farage and Mr Farage alone, he suggests.
“It’s the Farage factor,” he says, “People don’t see him for what he is. He has never delivered anything.
“When you’ve got the support of a lot of people who have populist ideas, then you will get multiple chances. But when challenged, there is no foundation. There’s nothing there.”
Mr Thomas, sitting in a dining room crammed with knick-knacks, books, and souvenirs of life in public office, pauses to say hello to Sergio, his beloved Dachshund.
Are the Tories (now predicted by pollsters to be reduced to 22 seats in 2029) finished?
“No, I don’t think so. These things are cyclical and they will have credible people in the party who can put together policies and plans to give you a viable alternative - they have that capability.”
Reform’s chances of steering KCC away from the brink of bankruptcy and with local government reforms on the way, means the next two or three years will be how they will be judged, says Mr Thomas.
But he warns: “They will need to be successful.”
While Cllr Wimble’s mandate is huge and undeniable, his large chunk of the vote on May 1 was in a poll where 59% of the electors did not vote.
Nicola Lynch, who runs a vintage clothes shop in Lydd, was one. She has been at the premises for eight years, first selling antiques and later filling rails with garments.
Trade is slow, very slow. Her dissatisfaction with the electoral system means she did not cast her ballot.
She says: “They’re all as bad as each other. They make loads of promises and then don’t do anything. I wish we could get rid of the whole lot of them and wipe the slate clean.”
The Labour government’s national insurance changes deterred her from taking on another member of staff and, besides which, people are scared to spend money, she says.
A few doors down, at the Brew at 32 cafe in the High Street, owner of five years Maria Beach is clearly unimpressed with Reform’s decision to remove the Ukrainian flag from County Hall, Maidstone.
“We’re all in this together,” she says, “Why can’t we just be there for each other, no matter who you are or where you come from?”
Tony Hills is comfortable, if disappointed, about defeat to Cllr Wimble and accepts the result with good grace. He was also very impressed with the new KCC leader Linden Kemkaran’s maiden speech to the chamber, which he watched live online.
“Her nibs is a very good communicator,” he says. “I was very impressed with her. Her predecessor (Conservative) Roger Gough was guarded in his speeches but she doesn’t give a toss.”
Mr Hills, a former advertising agency creative director who worked on one of Margaret Thatcher’s election campaigns while a member of the Liberals, has a passion for all things coastal, especially flooding and the effects on fish populations driven by climate change.
There has been a massive decline in white fish populations such as cod and pollock in the Channel because of rising sea temperatures, he says.
He is apt to use nautical metaphors when describing Reform UK’s success.
“Reform is a tidal wave going across the country because people want change and are fed up with the Conservatives and Labour,” the 76-year-old says.
“You can’t blame people and I was a casualty of that. I don’t think that Reform will do as well when the elections for the new unitaries come around. Once the tsunami goes through, there’s not much behind it.”
As for how the party will fare at KCC is another open question, suggesting that many of the 57 elected members are “like rabbits in the headlights”.
“Only a handful of them have any experience in local government, so I wouldn’t mind betting that there will be a lot of by-elections in the next year when they realise what is involved being a county councillor.”