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Four thousand extra homes could be lost to rising sea levels in Dover and Swale over the next 30 years, says report

Fast-rising sea levels could put thousands of homes in Kent at risk of being abandoned from flooding or erosion within the next 30 years, it is claimed.

According to a scientific report published today the areas most affected will be in Dover and Swale.

Rising sea levels in the south east highlighting Swale and Dover. Graphic: Ocean and Coastal Management
Rising sea levels in the south east highlighting Swale and Dover. Graphic: Ocean and Coastal Management

Both feature in a list of 20 local authorities across the UK where more than 2,000 homes, not including caravans, could be in peril.

Researchers predict that Britain could could face an additional 14-inch (35cm) rise of sea level by 2050 and near to three feet (1m) by the end of the century.

The warning came a week after Sir James Bevan, the chief executive of the Environment Agency, which is in charge of Britain's flood protection, said some of Britain's seaside towns and villages might have to be abandoned because of rising seas and coastal erosion.

He said a conversation was needed "because we owe it to the threatened communities themselves to help them decide what they want their long-term future to be."

Eastchurch on the Isle of Sheppey is particularly vulnerable with a history of cliff falls which have already claimed two churches, one post office, one pub and several houses.

Emma Tullett's home about to plunge down the cliff at Eastchurch. Drone picture: Henry Cooper
Emma Tullett's home about to plunge down the cliff at Eastchurch. Drone picture: Henry Cooper
Cliff fall at Surf Crescent, Eastchurch. Drone picture: Henry Cooper
Cliff fall at Surf Crescent, Eastchurch. Drone picture: Henry Cooper
The road cordoned off next to Dawn Rise in Eastchurch almost one year after the huge cliff collapse in May 2020. Picture: Chloe Holmwood
The road cordoned off next to Dawn Rise in Eastchurch almost one year after the huge cliff collapse in May 2020. Picture: Chloe Holmwood

One of the worst was two years ago when a bungalow, ironically called Cliffhanger, owned by mum-of-five Emma Tullett slipped over the cliff edge. She had been told it had been good to live in for 40 years. In fact, it was lost in less than two.

Faversham, also in Swale, suffered flooding in January when the creek burst its banks during a high tide and strong winds.

In all, a thousand miles of English coastline is at risk. Yet the government is resisting spending cash in certain areas, like Swale, where the Environment Agency has abandoned its hold-the-line policy.

Residents at Eastchurch are also fighting Natural England which has turned down a privately financed scheme by Sheppey farmers SA Attwood to remodel the fossil-strewn London Clay cliffs to save land and homes. Natural England says the area and its erosion characteristics make it a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI).

Other areas said to have 2,000 or more properties at risk are Adur, Bristol City, Cornwall, Eastbourne, East Devon, East Lindsey, East Suffolk, Gloucester, Ipswich, Maldon, North Somerset, North East Lincolnshire, Portsmouth, Sedgemoor, Tendring, Warrington, West Lancashire and Wyre.

Flooding at Dover as waves cover part of the promenade at high tide
Flooding at Dover as waves cover part of the promenade at high tide
When Faversham Creek burst its banks
When Faversham Creek burst its banks
High tide covers Crundall's Wharf at Queenborough in February. Picture: Henry Slack
High tide covers Crundall's Wharf at Queenborough in February. Picture: Henry Slack

In all, 200,000 properties in England may have to be abandoned. Scientists agree that decades of sea level rises are inevitable but the government has said not all properties can be saved. About a third of England's coast will be put under pressure by the rises, the report says.

Lead author Paul Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks from the University of East Anglia's Tyndall Centre, admitted: "It just won't be possible to hold the line all around the coast. Some tough decisions will have to be made about what it is realistic to protect. We need an honest debate about sea level rise - that hasn't been happening."

The study was published in the journal Ocean and Coastal Management.

KMTV reports on the latest predictions

Malcolm Newell, 73, of Surf Crescent, Eastchurch, vowed: “We’re not going to stop contacting the council,the Environment Agency and Natural England. We want to protect our homes. We need groynes on the beach."

The North Sheppey Coastal Study produced by the Environment Agency in 2012 estimated 1,000 caravans and 124 properties could be lost over the next 100 years. The government has earmarked £5.2bn for flood and coastal defences from 2021.

A spokeswoman from Swale council said: “We’ve seen the coverage of this latest report which we will be reviewing to help us better understand the potential impact on homes in Swale. We continue to work with key organisations involved in the shoreline management plan process, however, sea defences are expensive and any changes beyond the existing plan would require significant investment.”

A spokesman for Dover District Council said: “We are aware of this recently published paper which is a high level piece of academic research, broadly supporting forecasts contained within the Shoreline Management Plans for the area. In order to meet the challenges posed by climate change and the risk of flooding, we continue to work with partners to develop and maintain the coastal defences that protect our district and to consider these issues as we plan for the future of the district through our Local Plan."

There are links to flooding advice on its website here.

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