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There’s 'little chance’ of snow before Christmas

By: Gemma Constable

Published: 13:18, 03 November 2011

Sheppey weatherman Ken Beal

Sheppey is in need of a good watering, according to our resident rain expert Ken Beal.

October was another dry month with only eight days of rainfall out of a possible 31, about half of what we should normally expect at this time of year.

The arid statistics are provided by Ken’s rain gauge, which he keeps in a field near his Eastchurch home.

According to readings, Sheppey had 26mm, or one inch, of rain in October, about 15 mm short of the monthly average.

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Last October, the Island had 33mm.

Next year’s harvest is almost a full 12 months away, but Ken is adamant a good dose of the wet stuff is needed if we are to reap the nutritious rewards.

He said: “We need quite a lot of rain over the next couple of months to get to the yearly average of 480mm to 500mm.

“November and December aren’t the best months for heavy rainfall because the ground doesn’t dry very quickly.

“But we definitely need some on the crops now to make the wheat grow.”

With rain in short supply, what chance of snow in the run up to Christmas?

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Very little, according to Sheppey amateur forecaster Darren Prescott.

Although he predicts the weather will turn cooler over the weekend and into next week, there is definitely no sign of snow on the horizon.

But anyone dreaming of a white Christmas (again) will be warmed by an interesting piece of weather lore.

The theory is that a drier-than-average October followed by a wet November increases the likelihood of a cold winter.

But before anyone gets too excited, Darren sounds a note of caution.

“Statistically, there’s only a weak correlation, but a warm and dry October followed by a wet November has usually led to a cold winter in the past,” he said.

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