Brexit could push already struggling care home owners out of business within months, leading to a growing shortage of places for the elderly and vulnerable.

The warning has come from Nadra Ahmed OBE, the executive chairman of the Medway-based National Care Association.

It follows the leak of a report on the government’s Brexit contingency plans that said a post-Brexit rise in inflation could “significantly impact adult social care providers” with some folding within months.

Mrs Ahmed said: “Brexit could be a tipping point for care home providers who are on the brink and are creeping to the cliff-edge. We have to be very mindful of the small and medium-sized businesses in the care sector. We are trying to deliver a service against all the odds; however, the important thing is that without the staff and without the medical supplies which could be impacted and the fuel issues it will be extremely tough for providers.”

She thinks some care home owners might choose to close rather than struggle on, saying: “If they are not providing the level of care they are supposed to, they could be in breach of their regulations. It will see them beginning to think ‘well, we can’t provide this’ and they may either be forced or decide to close.”

She said the government should introduce an exemption for migrant workers who made up much of the workforce in adult care as evidence indicated there had been an exodus of staff.

“At any given time, we have 110,000 vacancies in adult social care and Brexit is only going to exacerbate it.”

She cited the government’s trial to allow fruit pickers to come to Kent under the Seasonal Workers Scheme as an example of what could be done.

Asked if she felt the government had got a grip on Brexit and its implications for the care sector, she said: “Absolutely not. I think they have thoughts and ideas but if there is a vast plan, it is not obvious to us.”

There was still time to sort out and plan for the consequences after Brexit deadline, provided the under-funding of social care was addressed.

She adds: “If they listen to what is needed and address the sustainability of care funding, then yes. We have got to stop saying the NHS has the money or the local authorities have the money. The reality is that it is the social care providers who need properly funding and provided with enough to meet all these challenges and the needs of delivering what is primarily a health care service.”

The prospect of a decline in adult care providers could be a challenge for Kent County Council, which is supporting an increasing number of elderly people in line with population growth and longer life expectancy. Of its overall budget of £416,000 for adult care, £123,722 is spent on care for about 33,600 people over the age of 65.

Opposition Labour county councillor Dr Lauren Sullivan said there were also issues for domiciliary care providers who supported vulnerable people living in their own homes.

“The short term impact of a no deal Brexit in Kent could be catastrophic. The prospect of longer travelling time between clients will mean less time with people, if they can get to the clients at all. This will increase social isolation.”

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