Gillingham and Rainham, and its predecessor constituency Gillingham, has only ever been represented by a Labour MP for a total of 18 years since 1918.

For the 24 elections as Gillingham and four since 2010 as Gillingham and Rainham, the Conservative and Unionist party have won a staggering 20 general elections.

Since the creation of the current constituency in 2010, the seat has been held by Rehman Chishti for the Conservatives, but it looks like this is about to change.

National polling by Electoral Calculus, which shows Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party streaking ahead, suggests when the general election comes on July 4, Gillingham and Rainham is incredibly likely to be one of many seats turning red.

Labour’s candidate, Naushabah Khan, would have to overturn the more than 15,000 majority which the Conservative won at the 2019 election - but there are signs this is already in motion.

At the May 2023 local elections, across Medway there was a nearly 6% swing to the Labour party which led to the Tories losing control of the council for the first time in 20 years.

The Labour group jumped from having 20 councillors to 33, with 11 of those being within the Gillingham and Rainham constituency boundaries.

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The seat is also a key Labour target, and was even the location of the party’s election campaign launch when leader Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner visited Priestfield Stadium, home of Gillingham FC, on May 23.

Key issues in Gillingham and Rainham include the difficulty in getting GP appointments, registering with an NHS dentist, and the pressure on the Medway Maritime Hospital, as well as affordable housing and the rising cost of living.

Some slight boundary changes will affect the constituency, but broadly the outline will remain the same.

The seat doesn’t offer much as a site for tactical voting as, in 2019, the Liberal Democrat candidate placed a distant third with 2,503 votes, following the Labour candidate’s 13,054 and Mr Chisthi’s winning 28,173.

If the polls do play out, and the seat falls under the Labour banner, it is a good sign Sir Keir Starmer is heading to 10 Downing Street.

The candidates

Awaiting details

Roger Peacock, Christian People’s Alliance

The full list of candidates:

Rehman Chishti, Conservative Party

Naushabah Khan, Labour Party

Stuart Bourne, Liberal Democrats

Kate Belmonte, Green Party

Peter Wheeler, Social Democratic Party

Rizvi Rawoof, Reform UK

Peter Cook, Independent

Roger Peacock, Christian People’s Alliance