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Climate change is influencing how much rain falls during autumn and winter storms, says the Met Office, as the county emerges from the wettest winter since 1836.
A new study claims human-induced climate change made the heavy storm downpours and total rainfall between last October and this March more frequent and more intense.
The most recent storm season, say leading scientists, has been ‘very active’ with the naming of Storm Kathleen in April just the second time the letter K had been reached since a naming group was established in 2015.
The torrential downpours, say researchers, associated with such storms are also becoming more intense and more likely.
In a pre-industrial climate, calculates the study, rainfall from storms as intense as the 2023-24 season had an estimated return period of one in 50 years.
However, in today’s climate, with 1.2°C of global warming, such intense rainfall is expected to occur closer to once every five years. Climate change too has increased the amount of rainfall from these storms, making them about 20% more intense.
If global warming reaches 2°C, warns the report, storm rainfall could become even more intense and happen about once every three years instead.
Problems in Kent
The bleak forecast comes just hours after farmers in the county appealed for government help and support to halt the rapid decline in Kent’s fruit production.
Speaking after the Farm to Fork summit in Downing Street, the NFU explained there is a ‘national crisis of confidence’ among farmers and growers after a survey showed confidence at a record low following the wettest winter on record that has coincided with a drop in demand and squeezed margins from supermarkets.
President Tom Bradshaw explained: “We cannot forget that our members have experienced the wettest 18 months since 1836, including devastating flooding, and many are facing an acute short-term crisis.
“The reality is that some farmers and growers believe they may not survive long enough to benefit from these announcements.”
The prolonged wet winter is also creating other challenges in the county.
Folkestone has experienced at least eight landslides this year which has disrupted train services, temporarily closed a popular playground and local paths, and shut a popular and well-used route through the town.
The district council, which is working to repair issues, has suggested that high rainfall in February could be among the contributing factors with University of Kent professor of planning and resilient systems Samer Bagaeen in agreement that the record wet weather is having an impact on the coastal town.
Six miles of train track between Sittingbourne and Rainham also had be closed in February when the wet weather contributed to the formation of a 40-metre long crack next to the line.
And just last week Sport England announced £45 million of investment ‘to help more people get active in nature, restore flooded sports pitches and help sports clubs become sustainable’ after it found the extreme weather was hindering people’s ability to lead healthy lives.
Elsewhere the FA has estimated that 120,000 grassroots football matches each year are lost as a result of terrible weather which leaves a third of community pitches unplayable amid warnings that the situation is ‘only going to get worse’.
Met Office Science manager of Climate Attribution, Mark McCarthy, said the ‘seemingly never ending rainfall’ this autumn and winter had ‘notable impacts’ in both the UK and Ireland
He added: “This new study shows how rainfall associated with storms and seasonal rainfall through autumn and winter have increased, in part due to human induced climate change.
“In the future we can expect further increases in frequency of wet autumns and winters.
“That’s why it is so important for us to adapt to our changing climate and become more resilient to increases in rainfall.”