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Paul on Politics: Conservatives winning streak could come to abrupt end after Labour holds seat at by-election and PM's handling of the 'Matt Hancock affair'

The Conservatives winning run in elections came to an abrupt end overnight after Labour held on to the seat of Batley and Spen at a by-election - albeit with its majority slashed to 323.

The result takes some of the pressure off the beleaguered party leader Keir Starmer, who might have faced a challenge to his leadership had the party been defeated.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer

Victory, albeit with the most slender of margins, will come as some relief and buys him some of that most valuable of political commodities: time.

The result will also have the advantage of turning the focus away from his difficulties to Boris Johnson.

It may seem odd to question where this leaves his leadership but is some of the shine wearing off?

Kent remains a largely Conservative political citadel, the electoral map of the county remains predominantly blue with very few splashes of red, yellow and green.

The chief problem facing Labour continues to be the lack of a clear political narrative with enough voter appeal to win over not only those who have previously backed the party but supporters of other parties.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Prime Minister Boris Johnson

It cannot rely on the Conservatives to implode - even if there are dissenting voices about Johnson, they are remaining mute for the time being.

Which brings us to the Liberal Democrats, who have seized on the other by-election victory in Chesham and Amersham as a sign that it is far from a moribund party.

Indeed, if the party is to be believed, that swing that toppled the Conservative party is a sign that its fortunes are on the rise.

The local party in Medway put out a press release saying that if the swing was applied across the country, it would take 44 seats from the Conservatives.

This is the kind of political extrapolation that is designed to show how a party is picking up momentum based on some shaky arithmetic.

"If it can happen there it can happen here in Medway too..."

It did not stop the party from bigging up its future prospects with an excitable quote from John Castle, Liberal Democrat spokesman for Medway, saying: "If it can happen there it can happen here in Medway too".

Well it could - except for the fact that the swing at that by election was a stonking 25%, which is highly unlikely to be replicated at a general election.

And it is worth pointing out the Liberal Democrat share of the vote in this week's by-election in Batley and Spen fell from 4.7% to 3.3%. As yet, we have not received a fresh press release on the possible electoral implications of this particular result.

It might seem odd given that there appears to be a rising number of schools affected by Covid-19 that some are arguing for an easing of the rules by which they have to abide.

Their complaint is that the rules are rather a blunt instrument and more flexibility ought to be allowed in the way they respond.

MPs including Craig Mackinlay are urging the government to lift Covid restrictions in schools. Stock picture
MPs including Craig Mackinlay are urging the government to lift Covid restrictions in schools. Stock picture

The government for its part seems to think that the rules are pitched at just the right level and it seems unlikely they will change before the autumn term gets underway in September.

The other oddity is that it has been Conservative education policy to devolve more autonomy to schools, contending that politicians should not get in the way of, or interfere with, the way schools are run.

Admittedly, a viral pandemic presents rather more challenges and is a more serious issue. But the protocols around sending children home are having a much wider impact than just on the hours being lost in the classroom.

The end of the affair: The Prime Minister has defended the way he handled the Matt Hancock, er, affair, arguing that a new secretary of state for health was appointed within a day of Mr Hancock quitting.

Which is true but conveniently overlooks that his initial response was to say that he accepted Mr Hancock’s apology and that had drawn a line under the saga.

Matt Hancock with Gina Coladangelo (Yui Mok/PA)
Matt Hancock with Gina Coladangelo (Yui Mok/PA)

The line was so vanishingly thin however it didn't take long for it to be snapped and the former minister offered his resignation.

This prompted the risible claim from ministers that he had put his family first, although is it doubtful that his wife shared this view.

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