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Chancellor Rishi Sunak to deliver spring budget in face of cost of living crisis

When Chancellor Rishi Sunak arrives at the despatch box in parliament today, households will be hoping his speech contains some glimmers of hope as the cost of living crisis starts to bite.

With the rising price of food, fuel and energy a key concern, his statement promises to include measures designed to mitigate the impact. Our political editor Paul Francis looks at what we can expect.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under growing pressure at next week’s budget to offer some help to those finding it increasingly hard to pay their bills. Stock picture
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under growing pressure at next week’s budget to offer some help to those finding it increasingly hard to pay their bills. Stock picture

The soaring costs of energy

The government has already set out proposals it says will ease the burden of rising energy prices but did so before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The key pledges were a £150 rebate on council tax bills but only for those in bands A to D, along with a £200 loan.

One option might be to increase the rebate but most authorities are already sending out bills with details of the £150 discount and how it will work, so that could be problematic.

Having said that, councils administering the rebate will have established arrangements to process the discounts.

Charities are already warning that hard-pressed families face decisions on whether to eat or heat. Stock picture
Charities are already warning that hard-pressed families face decisions on whether to eat or heat. Stock picture

Charities are already warning that hard-pressed families face decisions on whether to eat or heat.

The Chancellor might choose to wait until the autumn when the energy regulator’s cap will be reviewed.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy prices means these measures may now protect consumers from just a fifth of the coming increase.

Fuel costs

Could eye-watering increases at the petrol pump be matched by an eye-catching cut in fuel duty?

It seems increasingly likely it will. So stand by for what may be the headline-grabbing announcement of today’s budget, with reports indicating the Chancellor is likely to bow to pressure and is preparing to announce a five pence per litre cut in duty.

That would bring some solace to motorists and perhaps take the heat off a government anxious to avoid headlines that it is doing nothing to help families meet fuel costs.

Proposed increases in fuel duty have been cut 11 times in succession and in his budget last October, Mr Sunak said he was cancelling the proposed rise “to keep the cost of living low”. But that was before the war in Ukraine, which has contributed significantly to higher prices.

Campaigners say that any cut will be welcomed – and it should be a permanent one rather than temporary. Howard Cox, of the Fair Fuel Campaign group, said other countries had gone much further. "It has to be the minimum and it has to be permanent," he said.

While motorists are likely to welcome a reduction, there may be a more muted reaction from those who rely on public transport to get around.

Fuel costs at the pumps have continued to rise. Stock picture
Fuel costs at the pumps have continued to rise. Stock picture

National Insurance

Could there be scope for changes here? Some believe the plans for National Insurance rates to increase by 1.25% on April 1 could be postponed, a move that many would welcome.

The option of delaying the implementation of a levy for renewable energy might also be considered – at a cost to the Conservative’s green credentials.

Another option reported to be under consideration is making the threshold for any increase to kick in at a higher level. There is already disquiet that the increase could have a disproportionate and detrimental impact on the lower-paid.

This is because workers pay 12% National Insurance on earnings between £9,564 (£9,880 from April) and £50,268. However, earnings above this amount attract a rate of just 2%.

Some believe the plans for National Insurance rates to increase by 1.25% on April 1 could be postponed. Stock picture
Some believe the plans for National Insurance rates to increase by 1.25% on April 1 could be postponed. Stock picture

Defence spending

If the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has showed anything it is the unpredictable nature of international politics.

Few predicted that what is by any name a war would break out and that the UK would be actively arming one side.

If there was ever a case for the defence budget to increase, now may prove the time.

The Chancellor is expected to say the security of the country goes hand in hand with security of the economy.

If there was ever a case for the defence budget to increase, now may prove the time. Picture: iStock
If there was ever a case for the defence budget to increase, now may prove the time. Picture: iStock

“We will confront this challenge to our values not just in the arms and resources we send to Ukraine but in strengthening our economy here at home," he will say.

"When I talk about security, yes – I mean responding to the war in Ukraine. But I also mean the security of a faster growing economy. The security of more resilient public finances."

Reports suggest the Chancellor may use the budget as a springboard for a fresh look at the defence budget without necessarily any concrete commitment.

As things stand the government spends just under 2% of the UK's GDP on defence.

Hospitality

There was not much goodwill between the hospitality sector and the Chancellor last year.

Mr Sunak faced criticism for his lack of support for struggling hotels, bars, restaurants and clubs that were suddenly facing another unexpected and unplanned lockdown just before Christmas, a key trading time of the year.

The Chancellor responded with a £1 billion package of business grants and help with sick pay.

One option could be to extend this help for a short period to help small businesses.

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