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Are Kent's bus services ever likely to improve? Stagecoach, Campaign for Better Transport and Transport Focus on the challenging road ahead

You wait ages for a bus, the old saying goes, and then two come along at once. For the firms operating the services, the problems just keep arriving.

The legacy of the pandemic has seen passenger numbers plummet by up to 25% from what they once were - compounded by an anxiety among many about using public transport and the embracing of hybrid working.

Stagecoach has called on passengers to 'bear with us' during the challenging period
Stagecoach has called on passengers to 'bear with us' during the challenging period

Brexit and Covid's dual impact on the jobs market has led to a reduction in bus drivers and engineers - prompting services to be changed or cancelled.

And as if that wasn't enough, routes subsidised by the county council face being axed as County Hall tightens its budgets. Oh, and crucial support money Whitehall has provided to the bus industry to help it through the dramatic drop in user numbers since Covid, is set to be scrapped in the spring.

A Twitter update from Stagecoach about ongoing bus cancellations
A Twitter update from Stagecoach about ongoing bus cancellations

If you're waiting for more services - or simply an improvement to your current one - to call at your stop over the short-term, you may be left twiddling your thumbs.

"The government has paid the bus sector a recovery grant since Covid which is due to finish around March next year," explains a spokesman for Stagecoach which operates services across Kent.

"Essentially that has kept services on life support. Without that we would have severely reduced routes, thinned out timetables, closed depots and put jobs at risk.

Bus numbers were declining before the pandemic - and have not recovered since
Bus numbers were declining before the pandemic - and have not recovered since

"Essentially the central government funding has kept everything going."

It is a sobering assessment shared by others.

Michael Solomon Williams is campaigns manager for the advocacy group for sustainable travel, Campaign for Better Transport. He explains: "Our view is that the bus industry nationwide is in a very unhealthy state and it's being progressively reduced.

"Since the pandemic, the numbers remain down on what they once were.

"You can sort of see the rationale to reducing services - people don't use buses as much so we'll let some disappear - but, logically, that doesn't work long-term as you need to make investment for people to use buses."

Michael Solomon Williams of the Campaign for Better Transport. Picture: David Mirzoeff/Campaign for Better Transport
Michael Solomon Williams of the Campaign for Better Transport. Picture: David Mirzoeff/Campaign for Better Transport

It is a classic Catch-22.

To get a clearer understanding of the problems, it is worth clarifying just how bus services are funded.

Across Kent, the vast bulk of services are operated on a purely commercial footing. So the bus companies which operate the routes do so with a view to, as with all businesses, making a profit.

In addition, the bus companies receive a subsidy from the likes of Kent County Council and Medway Council towards the cost of concessionary fares. So, in other words, if you use an older person's bus pass, or school pass, then the local authorities will pay a sum to the bus operators based on the number of people using them - effectively making up the shortfall in the fare.

Clearly, with a drop of up to 25% in bus use since the pandemic, this has hit the bottom line of many bus firms hard.

Crucial funding from the government is due to end in the spring
Crucial funding from the government is due to end in the spring

In addition, there are supported services which the county council will financially support as they would otherwise not be financially sustainable. Theses are put out to tender and run under contract to the local authority.

However, KCC is slashing its budget by a third - reducing its spend from £6m by £2.2m. It will spell the end for many routes.

But it's not just the subsidised routes feeling the pinch.

Adds the Stagecoach spokesman: "We're now preparing for the Covid funding coming to an end and so we have to seriously look at our operating plans and make some reductions.

"It's not a case of cutting the less profitable routes - it's the ones that are losing money hand over fist. There are very little which are actually very profitable.

Covid had a huge impact on passenger numbers
Covid had a huge impact on passenger numbers

"Most of our network is essentially commercial - but routes which were barely covering their costs before the pandemic and are now haemorrhaging money. It can't be sustained. When that recovery funding gets switched off, it's going to be crunch time. Which is why we're looking to minimise the impact as much as possible with the timetable changes we've been making in recent months.

"It is really serious. We have really got to tighten up if we are going to continue as a business. That's got to be our priority as we have a responsibility to look after the people we've got and preserve the jobs we support in the community."

The issue is not one just impacting the county - it is nationwide.

"There's a huge difference in service provision around the country," explains Michael Solomon Williams. "There are areas where people cannot rely on buses, where bus stop provision varies greatly. And that lack of consistency is a real issue.

"There is a perception that buses are too infrequent, too expensive and too complicated."

"When that recovery funding gets switched off, it's going to be crunch time..."

The exception to the rule, of course, is in London. There, government body Transport for London co-ordinates public transport in the city - which includes buses and the Tube network - and its main roads. Since coming into force in 2000, it has been hailed as a transport success story.

Which is not something you could often say about Kent's public transport services.

Adds the Campaign for Better Transport campaigns manager: "We are in favour of devolution to the regions, so KCC would have more powers to have centralised distribution of funds for buses, but balancing that with a national approach so people are aware buses are both more affordable and more available.

"At the moment there is excessive fragmentation."

So where does salvation of a key strand of the county's public transport system lie?

Former PM Boris Johnson is a self-confessed bus fan
Former PM Boris Johnson is a self-confessed bus fan

Earlier this year, the government announced its latest round of funding as part of what it calls its Bus Back Better Strategy - launched by then Prime Minister and self-confessed bus fan, Boris Johnson.

Originally a £3 billion cash pot, councils were invited to bid for a slice of the funding. The cash couldn't be used to support failing routes, but could be ploughed into to improving services, facilities and bus infrastructure.

However, by the time the winners and losers of the Bus Service Improvement Plans (BSIPs) were announced, that pot had been whittled down to £1.2bn. Medway Council missed out completely. Kent fared better with one of the bigger slices, collecting £35.1m. Mind you, it had applied for more than £212m.

"What we really believe is that nationwide we need a system similar to that of Transport for London," says Michael Solomon Williams, "which is that funding is ring-fenced and equally spread, so it guarantees services are laid on.

"Across the country, what we have is a very fragmented, de-regulated system where authorities are bidding and unfortunately inequalities are exacerbated as the people least able to bid for these BSIPs don't succeed in them. That means it increases inequality and transport poverty."

Transport for London operates buses differently to those elsewhere in the country. Picture: TfL
Transport for London operates buses differently to those elsewhere in the country. Picture: TfL

Not to mention some remain doubtful that even the money earmarked for those successfully bidding will actually end up being handed over, as Whitehall prepares to be deafened by the sound of public spending across all its government departments being squeezed.

"There remain a lot of question marks over whether that funding will come through," said one industry insider.

Which will be of little comfort to the thousands in the county reliant on the bus.

David Sidebottom is director at the independent watchdog Transport Focus. He said: “Passengers depend on buses to get them to work, education, shopping and medical appointments. Our research tells us people want a value for money service from reliable and punctual buses that go where they need.

“We are working with operators and local authorities to make sure these needs are key to future plans.”

"People want a value for money service from reliable and punctual buses that go where they need..."

The problem is not helped by a lack of drivers, which has caused disruption on some routes across the county - as well as further afield - recently.

The situation was exacerbated by the twin perils of Covid and Brexit - depleting the talent pool or prompting others to seek alternate jobs.

Joel Mitchell is managing director for Stagecoach South East. He said: "A small proportion of our overall services in Kent are affected by an ongoing professional driver vacancy gap in the UK bus sector.

"Despite operating an average of 96% of our local timetabled services, we share the frustration of our customers at the impact disruption has on local communities.

“We are working hard to recruit and train new drivers, as well as focusing our resources and services where we can best meet new post-Covid travel patterns.

Stagecoach South East’s managing director Joel Mitchell
Stagecoach South East’s managing director Joel Mitchell

"We've also been working with the county council to develop new network plans for local areas, to put bus services on a sustainable footing.

“Buses remain fundamental to daily life. Looking ahead, they are also critical to helping achieve a green economic recovery and supporting connected communities; but we need national government along with local authorities to work with transport operators to invest in innovative solutions which attract more people out of cars and onto vibrant and sustainable public transport."

It does seem, in an era where we face an environmental and cost-of-living crisis, perverse that bus services - which could reduce the number of polluting cars on our roads while cutting travel costs - are in such a precarious state.

So what is the answer?

Like the trains, there are many calls for a nationalisation - to end the 'fragmentation' which currently exists.

Passenger numbers are currently at around 75-80% of pre-pandemic levels
Passenger numbers are currently at around 75-80% of pre-pandemic levels

There are some bright spots on the horizon. A three-month scheme will roll out in January - assuming of course the government can still spare the £60m it has pledged to fund it - which will cap all single fares at £2. It is hoped it will lure more back onto the bus as they look to cut costs in the light of the cost-of-living crisis.

Concludes Michael Solomon Williams of Campaign for Better Transport: "At the moment it's not easy to be confident, unfortunately, but we're living in unique times.

"What's obvious is there are these over-riding challenges - such as the cost of living and climate emergency - these ultimately will make people make changes to their daily lives and public transport has to be part of the picture.

"Personally, I'm optimistic the wheel will turn, no pun intended, and people realise there has to be a combined solution.

"In the short-term it doesn't look great, but in the long-term I'd like to think that things will turn around."

Bus firms are warning of tougher times ahead. Picture: Martin Smith/Stagecoach
Bus firms are warning of tougher times ahead. Picture: Martin Smith/Stagecoach

As for Kent? What message would Stagecoach send to its passengers?

"Please bear with us," says its spokesman, "there are huge challenges facing the public bus transport sector and we need people to make the choice to use the bus to be able to grow our networks and to invest in vehicles and ultimately keeping fares lower.

"The more people who use the bus and make that choice, the better it is going to be for communities.

"It will help meet environment targets, traffic congestion and ultimately be a service people can depend on and have some pride in having.

"It is a case, essentially, of use it or lose it."

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